Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee:
I am pleased to have this opportunity
to appear before the Subcommittee today to discuss NASA's current
efforts and future plans to inventory and characterize the population
of Near Earth Objects (NEOs).
BACKGROUND
This Committee has been a leader in
focusing attention on the importance of cataloging and characterizing
Earth-approaching asteroids and comets. In 1992, the Committee
on Science directed that NASA sponsor two workshop studies, the
NEO Detection Workshop, which was chaired by NASA, and the NEO
Interception Workshop, which was chaired by the Department of
Energy. In March 1993, the Science Committee held a hearing to
review the results of these two workshops. In 1995, at the Committee's
request, NASA conducted a follow-up study which was chaired by
the late Dr. Gene Shoemaker. Each of these studies stressed the
importance of characterizing and cataloging NEOs with diameters
larger than 1 km within the next decade. We have taken steps to
put us on a path to achieving this goal. I am here today to tell
you about those steps, as well as to bring you up to date on the
rich program of space missions to NEOs and related objects.
The NEO population is derived from a
variety of scientifically interesting sources including planetessimal
fragments and some Kuiper belt objects. Indeed, the Office of
Space Science Strategic Plan includes as a specific goal "
. . . to complete the inventory and characterize a sample of Near
Earth Objects down to 1 km diameter.î While the threat
of a catastrophic collision is statistically small, NASA has a
vigorous program of exploration of NEOs planned, including both
asteroids and comets.
There has been much recent discussion
about the potential threat posed by NEOs, but NASA has long been
interested in them from a scientific standpoint. NEO investigations
have had to compete for support against a number of other compelling
science programs; funding selection criteria were based principally
on scientific merit. This approach has led to the detection of
over 400 NEOs, including more than 100 objects larger than 1 km
and to a rapid advancement of the technologies necessary for NEO
detection. In fact, this research effort has demonstrated that
we can inventory the NEO population in a reasonable time, about
a decade, with an achievable increase in funding from recent levels.
A little less than a year ago, NASA
initiated a study of its existing NEO research to determine how
well we were doing in terms of reaching our goal of inventorying
the population of NEOs larger than 1 km and characterizing a sample
of them. While we have made some impressive strides, it became
apparent that the funding levels resulting from scientific competitive
review ($1-1.5 M per year) was not sufficient to accomplish our
goal. The detection of new NEOs in 1997, the last year for which
we have statistics, is barely 10% of the rate needed to achieve
the goal suggested in the Shoemaker report (detection of 90% of
the NEO population larger than 1 km within a decade). In simple
terms, we need to survey about 20,000 square degrees of sky a
month for NEOs to a limiting brightness of approximately 20th
magnitude to accomplish the inventory. To understand what this
means, note that 20,000 square degrees is about half the sky and
that magnitudes are a measure of apparent brightness-a 6th
magnitude object is at the limit of detection for the human eye
and 20th magnitude is almost 100,000 times fainter.
I would now like to describe briefly
the existing search programs, NASAís plans to improve them,
and some promising new research programs which we are considering.
I will also comment on our joint activities with the Air Force
Space Command. All of these efforts are directed toward increasing
the rate of discovery of NEOs in order to reach our goal.
STATUS OF ONGOING SEARCH PROGRAMS
NASA's ground-based NEO program comprises
three parts: Spacewatch, the Near-Earth Asteroid Tracking (NEAT)
program, and the Lowell Near Earth Asteroid Survey (LONEOS).
Spacewatch
Spacewatch is a program at the University
of Arizona, led by Dr. Tom Gehrels, which has done much of the
pioneering work in the field of NEO detection. This group is
responsible for more NEO discoveries than any other. The current
Spacewatch Program searches 200 square degrees of sky per month
to a depth of 21st magnitude. This year NASA is funding
a new state-of-the-art focal plane camera for Spacewatch, which
will lead to an 8-fold increase in the area of sky that they search
each month (to 1600 square degrees per month). We hope in the
future to assist them in their efforts to bring their new 1.8
m telescope on line. This telescope will enable them to detect
even fainter NEOs.
NEAT
NEAT is a program headed by Dr. Eleanor
Helin at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. NEAT uses a specialized
camera, which is based on a 4096x4096 CCD array for use on the
1 m GEODSS (Ground-based Electro-Optical Deep Space Surveillance)
telescope, operated by United States Air Force Space Command (USAFSC)
on Haleakala, Maui, Hawaii. This group is currently limited by
the number of nights per month on which they can observe the sky
using the GEODSS system. They are presently observing six nights
per month on one of the seven GEODSS telescopes. With recent
improvements they are now able to search 800 square degrees per
night (4800 square degrees per month) to about 20th
magnitude. We have funded the construction of 2 more cameras,
which we hope to install on two other GEODSS telescopes. This
increase in the level of effort for NEO detection is being discussed
in the NASA-USAFSC Partnership Council co-chaired by NASA Administrator
Daniel Goldin and AFSC Commander Gen. Howell Estes. It is in
principle possible to scan 21,000 square degrees a month with
three cameras and full access to three of the GEODSS telescopes.
It is important to note that the GEODSS system includes one southern
hemisphere site.
While we certainly hope to increase
our surveying ability using the GEODSS system, we are aware that
it has other vital missions. NASAís FY 1999 budget request
includes sufficient funding for the construction of four more
NEAT cameras, which will enable us to equip all seven GEODSS telescopes.
The final application of the funds will depend on the demonstration
that the NEAT camera can support the existing mission of the
GEODSS system as well as the search for NEOs. This matter is
currently being reviewed by the Partnership Council on NEOs.
LONEOS
LONEOS is led by Dr. Ted Bowell at Lowell
Observatory in Flagstaff, Arizona. This group has great potential
(capability to observe 4,300 square degrees a month down to 20tth
magnitude); however, they have not yet reached this level
of performance. We are funding an augmentation to buy a second
focal plane CCD and to support additional software development
in order to allow them to reach their performance objective.
NEW SEARCH PROGRAMS
The increased interest in the search
for NEOs has led to several recent proposals from new groups:
Catalina NEO Survey
We are supporting a new search program
at the University of Arizona, which is headed by Mr. Steven Larson,
to refurbish an existing telescope on Mount Lemon. When fully
operational, this system will survey 8,000 square degrees of sky
per month to a depth of 19th magnitude. This program
will be fully operational within a year.
LINEAR
NASA is evaluating a proposal for support of a very promising search program from the MIT Lincoln Labs. This effort called LINEAR (Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research program) uses a state-of-the-art camera which was developed as a possible prototype for the next generation GEODSS detector. They are proposing to use a 1 m telescope at their Experimental Test Site near Socorro, New Mexico, to survey 10,000 square degrees down to 21st magnitude each month.
With coordination of these different
observational programs, NASA believes it is possible to obtain
the level of sky coverage to the appropriate limiting magnitude
required to complete the survey. NASA has already committed over
$3M this year, much of it to fund improvements to focal plane
detectors, software, and electronics. NASA is committed to funding
both existing and new search programs at, at least, the FY1998
level. We believe this is close to the level required to achieve
our objective.
SPACE-BASED MISSIONS RELEVANT
TO OUR UNDERSTANDING OF NEOs
The study of the physical characteristics
of NEOs is a major focus of both ground-based research and space
missions. The ground-based work includes NASA-supported radar
imaging of NEOs utilizing the Arecibo Radio Telescope and spectroscopy
of NEOs from optical/IR telescopes to determine their composition.
Several NASA missions will travel to
asteroids and/or comets to provide us with exciting new scientific
insights about these objects at the same time this information
is valuable for any future effort to respond to an impact threat.
Over the next decade NASA will invest approximately $1B in these
missions. Missions in flight or in development are:
Missions soon to enter development are:
CONCLUDING REMARKS
The issues and challenges posed by NEOs
are inherently international, and any comprehensive approach to
addressing them must be international as well. Central areas
of concern include coordination among NEO observers and orbit
calculators around the globe and public notification should an
object posing a significant hazard to Earth be discovered. NASA
has begun discussing, with the international community, convening
an international workshop to address these issues. The workshop
will likely be held during the first half of 1999. The goal
of this workshop will be to develop international procedures and
lines of communication to ensure that the best available accurate
information about any potentially hazardous object is assembled
and disseminated to the public in the shortest possible time.
To facilitate coordination among NASA-supported
researchers, other agencies and scientists, and the international
community, NASA is establishing an NEO Program Office. This Office
will coordinate ground-based observations, ensure that calculated
orbital elements for NEOs are based on the best available data
and support NASA Headquarters in the continuing development of
strategies for the exploration and characterization of NEOs.
In the unlikely event that a potentially hazardous object is detected,
the Office would coordinate the notification of both the observing
community and the public of any potentially hazardous objects
discovered.
NASA is committed to achieving the goal
of detecting and cataloging 90% of NEOs larger than 1 km in diameter
within 10 years, and to characterizing a sample of these objects.
We are developing and building instruments, and developing partnerships
-- particularly with the Air Force -- which should lead to the
necessary detection and cataloging capability being in place in
1-2 years. This capability will also allow us to detect and characterize
many NEOs smaller than 1 km.
In summary, NASA's obligation and commitment is to ensure that we have the information necessary to understand the hazards posed by NEOs.