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NATIONAL AERONAUTICS R&D GOALSTechnology for America's FutureExecutive Office of the PresidentOffice of Science and Technology Policy March 1985 FOREWARD In November of 1982 an interagency working group, under the direction of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, issued a comprehensive report analyzing the state of aeronautics research and the role of the Federal Government in supporting that research. Among its conclusions were that there are possible today monumental advances in aircraft performance. Due to the nature of the benefits, both military and commercial, the Federal Government and industry must unite to realize that potential. As a result of that report, I established an Aeronautical Policy Review Committee, composed of government, industry, and academic experts, for the purpose of keeping track of the implementation of the recommendations in the first report. This second report by the Committee points out that, like other industries that rest on strong technological bases, American aeronautics faces tremendous challenges from abroad as well as tremendous opportunities for advances and leadership now and in the future. The report is comprehensive and addresses specific goals in three areas-subsonics, supersonics, and transatmospherics-that we should be focusing on. It gives clear direction for the Administration's commitment to maintaining and extending our leadership in this field. If the goals are pursued vigorously by industry, academia, and government, U.S. aeronautics, in both the civil and defense sectors, will be able to sustain its preeminence into the next century. G.A. Keyworth, II Science Advisor to the President, and Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy March 1985
NATIONAL AERONAUTICAL R&D GOALS AERONAUTICAL POLICY REVIEW COMMITTEE
Challenges and Opportunities U.S. aeronautics is and will remain a decisively forceful influence on the long-term economic and military security of the nation. The technical margins that have long defined U.S. aeronautical preeminence have narrowed significantly in recent years as foreign competition has increased. This trend, if allowed to continue, will evolve into major national weaknesses substantially increasing the vulnerability of America's position in world affairs. Because aeronautics is so integral to our national interest, U.S. national aeronautical policy now stipulates that the nation cannot and will not allow leadership erosion. Lasting U.S. aeronautical leadership will only be secured by the vigorous renewal of America's traditional strength: pioneering new technology. Aeronautical opportunities are known today which, if actively pursued, would result in 21st century U.S. civil and military aircraft of clear-cut superiority. Then technical excellence and cost advantages could more than overcome foreign competitive approaches. Strategy and Goals for U.S. Aeronautics The high-technology payoffs that result from advances in aeronautics are important national benefits that must be maximized by American enterprise. This maximization requires both government and industry to combine their efforts toward aggressive technological goals with potential for broad future application. In this pursuit, early applications can help generate the national resources and experience needed to capitalize on the opportunities that will follow. This strategy also supports the more definitive objectives for technically superior U.S. military aircraft. The Committee proposes three national goals to clarify and focus the direction for U.S. aeronautical R&D. Successful attainment of these goals will challenge American creativity. Within the next 10 years the U.S. must build its research and technology momentum and achieve a trans-century renewal of the nation's total aeronautics capacity. Work must proceed concurrently on all three goals, with early emphasis on the first. The goals are presented here in time-phased order of attainment: Subsonics Goal: To Build Trans-Century Renewal
Supersonics Goal: To Attain Long-Distance Efficiency
Transatmospherics Goal: To Secure Future Options
Collectively, these goals will focus national energies and creativity on new frontiers and opportunities that are vital for the future success and leadership of America. Implementation Challenges America's future in aeronautics demands much more than a "business as usual" attitude. U.S. industrial companies must work with one another, and with government agencies, to increase accomplishment and enhance affordability. Historically, a number of barriers have impeded technological advancement in both the public and private sectors. The current environment amplifies the impact of many of these impediments on achieving technology readiness. Appropriate corrective actions exist, and should be pursued without delay:
Planning, Priorities, and Policies For Action Technical plans for implementing these goals must be developed in close conjunction with the reordering of national R&D priorities and policies. This task challenges both public and private sector creativity to gain real growth in aeronautical technology development. It also challenges government leadership to reconcile policies inhibiting R&D progress and affordability. Toward this national purpose, the Executive Offices and mission-oriented agencies of government must work closely with Congress to ensure that the rich potential in aeronautics is nurtured, encouraged, and firmly secured as an American reality.
U.S. Aeronautics in a Global Context U.S. aircraft have long dominated in civil aircraft markets and in weapon system technical superiority, but there is no guarantee that U.S. leadership in aeronautics will be retained even in the short term. In fact, the U.S. can no longer assume its leadership is secure on any high technology front. Very clearly, the intensity of global competition in high technology poses a serious challenge to U.S. aeronautical preeminence, a situation which also brings into question the economic and strategic future of the United States. Aeronautics has a crucial role both in America's defense capabilities and in the employment, transportation, and exports which strengthen our national economy. In aeronautics, the U.S. system of private enterprise has developed a unique base of national synergy which affects key parts of the nation's overall competitiveness. Aircraft provides challenging product focus that stimulates high technology innovation from a broad array of contributing companies and industrial sectors. The success of this aspect of America's aeronautical infrastructure has not gone unnoticed by other nations, and aircraft capacities have become favored targets for foreign technological and industrial expansion over much of the past decade. While U.S. aircraft still maintain a broad base of technological advantage, the margin of that advantage has narrowed dramatically in recent years. In a growing number of aircraft-related areas, foreign technical capabilities are now comparable, if not superior, to those of the U.S. This is particularly evident for smaller aircraft, where the entry threshold has been within the financial and technical reach of an increasing number of smaller nations or multinational consortia. Foreign military aircraft capacities are now showing a similar trend. Coupled with this, military and civilian aircraft technologies and products have become a politically sensitive aspect of international negotiations and trade. In this respect, the erosion of American preeminence implies major negative consequences for the position of U.S. leadership in global security as well as for the vitality of U.S. industry in a changing global economy. An Expanding Perspective All these factors were recognized in the Administration's 1982 Aeronautical R&T Policy, which established challenging national goals for furthering all aspects of U.S. aeronautical preeminence. Following one of these policy recommendations, the President's Science Advisor formed a senior executive-level committee to review (from a national perspective) the Government's long-range aeronautical plans for consistency with the policy objectives. This is the second report submitted by that policy review committee. The Committee's first report, submitted to the Executive Office of the President in November 1983, included a number of recommendations to encourage a more aggressive and farsighted national outlook for aeronautics. During 1981, the U.S. aeronautical community reexamined opportunities for technological advancement that could be achieved by the end of this century. This crucial evaluation was conducted with a view toward vehicle concepts that reached beyond the arbitrary time horizon of the turn of the century. The results presented to the Committee both confirmed and expanded many earlier assessments. Very high- leverage payoffs can be expected from interdisciplinary efforts in propulsion, materials, aerodynamics, structures, and avionics. Aggressive technological readiness can produce either a distinct U.S. advantage or, conversely, an advantage to foreign civil and military competitors, depending on where the greatest effort and commitment are made. In considering this dynamic situation, several important factors should be borne in mind:
NATIONAL AERONAUTICAL R&D GOALS Three long-range goals are proposed to address all these challenges and opportunities. The Committee believes that the highest potential for revitalizing U.S. competitiveness lies in America's traditional area of strength: the pioneering of new technology. The three goals proposed here are aligned to form a strategy aimed at a decisive strengthening and leadership position in world markets and relative to our military adversaries. The goals are time-phased, with the first goal (subsonics) being crucial as an enabling goal. It must serve to reenergize American R&D momentum, because the product technologies it fosters must generate private sector resources necessary for exploitation of ensuing opportunities in supersonic and transatmospheric flight. While payoffs will be time-phased in their realization, it is important that work toward all three goals proceed concurrently. Emphasis over near-term years, however, must necessarily be focused on the first goal. To Build Trans-Century Renewal Advancing technology for a new generation of U.S. subsonic aircraft The past 15 years have seen mostly evolutionary advancements in subsonic aircraft technology, but future possibilities for truly revolutionary advancements far exceed all these. Subsonic opportunities can establish a firm U.S. foundation for technically superior aircraft to carry U.S. aeronautical leadership into the next century. The subsonics goal envisions this with an entirely new generation of fuel-efficient U.S. aircraft operating in a flexible and modernized National Airspace System. Simply stated, its aim is a safe, congestion-free U.S. aeronautical interstate system, offering superior air transportation at half its current cost. The subsonics goal also envisions the development of advanced military airlift capabilities, long endurance aircraft, low observables, rotorcraft, and other spin-off military requirements that are anticipated for the same general time frame. Accelerating subsonic technology can leverage unique advantages for the United States, by capitalizing on the pioneering efforts in airspace modernization and deregulation already in the national agenda. It also promotes domestic supply for the very large U.S. civil aircraft markets. In this respect, subsonic aircraft also dominate in world market projections, with a variety of requirements extending well into the next century. This immense civil opportunity is the cornerstone for sustaining American aircraft capacities, since civil work generates 50 percent of the total aircraft production business for the 15,000-company supplier base which supports both U.S civil and military needs. Foreign competition has already placed serious technology readiness pressures on the U.S. supply base, particularly with respect to smaller classes of aircraft (commuters, business aircraft, and rotorcraft) where the position of U.S. products is most endangered today. Significant national research and technology development is already in progress. However, key subsonic advances contributing to new transcentury aircraft must be accelerated and readied by the mid-1990's to meet crucial competitive applications that will affect U.S. aeronautical momentum into the next century. Technologies that are integral to the development of these subsonic aircraft include: laminar flow control advancements that substantially reduce aircraft drag; all composite high-strain structures; a new generation of super bypass and propfan engines; and fully integrated flight controls and operating systems that interface with National Airspace System modernization. It is essential for the National Airspace System Plan to maintain cohesiveness and flexibility to accommodate and keep pace with these future aircraft technologies. Advanced computational capability is key for both aircraft and air system objectives. New aircraft in the system will more than double today's best fuel efficiency, as well as being substantially more efficient in operation. U.S. general aviation, rotorcraft, commuters, and transport aircraft that decisively reduce acquisition and operating costs will dominate established world markets and the new air service expansions of developing nations. U.S. helicopters and V/STOL aircraft will also become increasingly important in both these market areas. Advanced aircraft of this type can reduce congestion in U.S. airports and provide transportation infrastructure unique to the specialized requirements of developing nations. Achievements of this magnitude could also produce a U.S. advantage in the eventual formation of a globally compatible air system, as well as leadership in other areas of international aviation. This in turn could leverage significant U.S. strategic and economic advantage for other important world agendas, particularly in the developing Pacific region. Stepping up national research momentum and efficiency is a vital part of this far-reaching goal. In view of this, a broad, trans-century strategy is proposed later in this report that places particular emphasis on revitalizing the nation's capacities for aeronautical innovation over the next decade. To Attain Long-Distance Efficiency Developing technology for efficient, long-distance supersonic cruise Gaining sustained supersonic cruise capability is of very high priority for future military aircraft survivability, long-distance responsiveness, and basing flexibility. However, this military capability is also aligned with highly constructive civil opportunities that could benefit the U.S. in important non-military areas as well. Supersonic advancement offers the added potential for welding long-term bonds between the U.S. and Pacific partners through possible joint development of the pacing technologies for a new generation of supersonic transports. The key technologies underlying this objective (propulsion, structures, materials, and aerodynamics) are largely generic to future military needs. Strategically and economically, United States trade and alliances in the Pacific have major implications for the future. The region's dynamic growth and vast potential for development should continue to be influenced and encouraged by American policy and enterprise. U.S. trade with the Pacific community has increased over 75 percent within the last six years, accelerating well beyond the volume of trade with Europe. Mutual security bonds are also of increasing significance in light of a potential major Soviet military buildup in the region. From both the strategic and economic perspectives, the vast Pacific area is constrained by distance, a factor adding significance to a U.S. supersonic goal... and contributing to the potential for Pacific Rim development by increasing cooperation and understanding among the nations and peoples of this important region. The key technologies for advancing supersonic cruise capability have not been aggressively pursued by the U.S. since the 1971 demise of the U.S. Supersonic Transport program. However, the NASA-funded Supersonic Cruise Research program, which ended in 1981, established a constructive base for further advancement. The development of single crystal turbine blades, better coatings, advanced cooling methods, and improved internal aerodynamics has allowed significant improvements in military engine thrust-to-weight ratios. The application of these technologies to a variable cycle engine with reduced noise, and much improved specific fuel consumption over the entire speed regime, forms a starting basis for the Pacific Supersonic Transport. The application of powder metallurgy technology and superplastic forming techniques to load-carrying structure, along with new thermoplastics, carbon-carbon, and metal matrix materials, will also have significant benefit for all classes of military and civilian supersonic aircraft. Additionally, fault-tolerant computers that provide load alleviation and dynamic damping, coupled with the cooler structure allowed by supersonic laminar flow, will significantly reduce the aircraft weight per pound of payload as compared with earlier supersonic transports. The advent of powerful computer systems will allow the computation of complex flows and the optimization of configurations that extend the regions of supersonic laminar flow. A complete understanding and verification of the potential for supersonic laminar flow is critical for sustained cruise speeds that would allow both military and civil aircraft operations at triple the fuel efficiency of today's supersonic technologies. Combined with other supersonic advances, it can also substantially reduce the overpressures contributing to sonic booms. Creative integration of these technologies could provide the U.S. and its Pacific allies with a transportation system linking farthest reaches of the area in four to five hours, while providing the military with vitally needed mission enhancements in basing, long-distance responsiveness, and survivability. To Secure Future Options Exploiting the growing convergence of aeronautics and space technology U.S. aeronautics and space endeavors share in related constraints and unexploited opportunities in the transatmospheric regime. The capability to routinely cruise and maneuver into and out of the atmosphere, to gain rapid responsiveness for low earth orbit missions (manned or unmanned), or to attain very rapid transport services between earth destinations from conventional runways must be viewed as aerospace options with global importance for the future. The importance of these capabilities to the U.S. must be underscored, since all these possibilities are also open to foreign military or civil initiatives in either aeronautics or space. The U.S. has largely viewed the transatmosphere as a technical boundary ... used to define the separate responsibilities between U.S. aeronautics and space. This is a view foreign competitors may not hold, since aeronautics and space technologies are rapidly converging. This convergence makes it vital for the U.S. to establish a long-range goal for understanding and better exploiting this important bridging regime. Increased understanding of the transatmospheric environment and its relationship to maneuvering vehicle requirements must be gained within the near term. This knowledge will be highly significant to the selection of high-payoff developments in propulsion, fuels, materials, system concepts, and other areas which may influence future national options in space and/or aeronautics. Much of the flight vehicle technology base is expected to develop from the progressive subsonic, supersonic, and hypersonic advancements in aeronautics as well as from Space Shuttle experience. Follow-on advancements in lightweight structural and thermal protection concepts involving new materials systems, artificial intelligence advancements, and blended body aerodynamics are also part of the progressive technology development scenario. Hybrid air-breathing propulsion systems, the truly pacing technology for conventional and routine operations from earth, are now viewed as feasible over the long term. Major fuel system/propulsion advancements may also be possible that would extend vehicle capabilities to high earth orbit The U.S. must seriously consider that the proliferation of world space activities will eventually call for more conventional forms of transport having the earth-based flexibility possible with transatmospheric flight. There are also very important future military options possible. The extreme altitude and speed capabilities this technology makes possible could enhance military survivability in lethal environments and provide flexible basing for global range weapons delivery, reconnaissance, or space support missions. If the vital goals outlined here are to be met, research momentum and efficiency must be energized on a national scale. Toward that end, a strategy is proposed that places primary emphasis on efforts that will revitalize the nation's capacities for aeronautical innovation over the next decade. Emphasize Basic Research and Technology A broad-based national program of basic R&T must be supported and sustained to produce the new concepts and ideas essential to technological advancement. A continuous flow of fundamental knowledge from both public and private research is vital if new advances and breakthroughs are to occur. Universities Much of the nation's basic research, as well as the training of scientific and engineering manpower, is performed within the American university system. A significant expansion of industry and government sponsorship of basic research at the university level is needed to encourage and sustain the important university contribution to America's knowledge and skill base. In particular, increased aeronautical research relationships between industry and the university system will provide valuable impetus for overall aeronautical momentum. Government and Industry On another level, highly important aeronautical programs are conducted directly by government and private industry. Basic research and technology at this level forms the bedrock for future technology progress. Government and industry research furthers physical phenomena understandings and the generic technology evolutions that lead to important new aeronautical advances. A continuity of effort on all these fronts-government, industry, and university-must be stressed to maximize the effects of this highly important aspect of transcentury revitalization. Time Frame for Progress A decisive trans-century momentum in national achievement must be established within the next 10 years. This becomes patently clear in view of the fact that only some 25 years elapsed between the DC-3 technology era and the advent of America's first generation of commercial jet transports. By all indications, future leaps in aeronautics technology will be achieved within much shorter time frames. We can also anticipate, from past aeronautical experience, that the acceleration of technology advancement will lead American society into new frontiers of opportunity. America must be fully prepared to take advantage of these opportunities. Address the Issue of Affordability Sustained preeminence will require both cost and technical superiority from U.S. aeronautics. Affordability, or the cost of acquisition, is a major problem confronting both military and civil aircraft programs today. The Committee believes that cost will remain a major impediment to national progress and competitiveness until more concrete steps toward solution are taken. Partial solutions can be realized in the technologies directly affecting the product level. Advanced manufacturing and product management concepts are all-important in this respect, but partial solutions are not the answer. Energizing the R&T Chain Product costs are highly influenced by the degree of continuity and effort employed at the early stages of research and technology. The most critical area is technology validation, the mid-phase in the R&T chain. This phase takes potentials identified from basic research (the first phase) and advances them into risk-acceptable readiness; the final phase then entails product application and production. National policies and implementing procedures that influence or direct technology have driven unintended barriers into this critical midphase of R&T, causing this vital link in the innovation chain for aeronautics to be short-circuited. There is no question that achieving technology validation and readiness of high-payoff potentials is the most costly and time-consuming aspect of research and development. It requires more time and more money than many persons in program advocacy positions are prepared to recognize or admit to. In truth, significant accomplishment is required before specific system needs are known or program commitments made. It is seldom fully recognized that production failures, program delays, or cost overruns may have been preordained because the risks in critical technologies were not sufficiently understood, and not reduced by appropriate feasibility demonstration experiments, before program commitments were made. Civil and Military Synergy There are highly constructive synergies that can be brought into play to affect affordability. For example, military advancements stress performance; on the other hand, commercial developments tend to emphasize lowered production costs, vehicle operating efficiency, and high availability with low maintenance... all of which are attributes vital to reducing military costs. At the production level, the civil industry becomes crucially important, because commercial endeavors provide both continuity and private sector funding to sustain industrial innovation. The 15,000 companies supporting both military and civil aircraft programs depend on civil work for about 80 percent of their aircraft production business. This close interrelation of civil and military enterprise should be viewed and utilized as a strong positive force for aeronautical progress and particularly for the achievement of affordability. Strategy for Improvement To correct problems that have historically impeded technological development, the following actions should be vigorously pursued: - Federal contracting procedures should be restructured to reflect a greater distinction between the procurement of research and technology and the procurement of hardware. - Regulatory policy should encourage cooperative efforts for technology developments among U.S. companies (as is now ongoing between U.S. and offshore companies). - Federal tax legislation should adequately stimulate private investment in timely technology development. - All branches of the Government with relevant oversight and/or management responsibilities should strive to maintain the continuity of research and technology development activities. The competitiveness of future U.S. civil and military aircraft will call for all these measures. But it will take more than aggressive government and industry funding at the validation readiness level. It will require smart money and cohesive policies to create dynamic and flexible capacity to exploit the full circle of synergies that surrounds U.S. aeronautics. The Challenge for Preeminence The Committee believes that the single most crucial challenge facing U.S. aeronautics is that much of the nation's leadership, both in government and in industry, underestimates the depth of foreign aeronautical commitment and resolve. U.S. preeminence can be maintained only by focusing a more aggressive national effort on attainment of the proposed national goals for aeronautical R&D. This U.S. strategy would simultaneously produce both a strengthened defense capability and a position of clear-cut product superiority in the international marketplace. In the Committee's view, the question is not whether these advances will be made... only when they will be achieved and by whom. The benefits are too valuable to remain untapped by competitors and adversaries for long. At the present time, the magnitude of world opportunity, and the extent of technology readiness required to decisively exploit this richness, appear to be largely underestimated in the policies and plans affecting U.S. aeronautics. The Agenda for Achievement The agenda for implementing these goals must create real national growth in R&D. Technical plans must reflect this, and the agenda must also emphasize the major issue for today-affordability. Traditional strengths can and must be utilized more cohesively. Affordability should challenge U.S. aeronautics to remove costly compartmentalizations from efforts that ready multi-use technologies important to long-term national goals. We must reshape our policies and procedures and posture our efforts toward working more effectively, if the nation is to compete more decisively. National affordability should again challenge U.S. aeronautics with the hard fact that military affordability is implicitly linked to the vitality of civil exploitations of technology. In view of this, and in the face of high payoffs and growing dual-use trends, the massive control of critical technologies must be questioned. The greatest challenge confronting the American realization of the potentials implicit within these goals may be that of redirecting the force of American will into specific, cohesive, and bold steps toward the future. AMERICAN POLICY REVIEW COMMITTEE
John E. Steiner, Chairman Harold D. Altis, Executive Vice President, McDonnell Aircraft Company John Boppart, Vice President of Engineering, Garrett Turbine Engine Company Crawford F. Brubaker, Deputy Asst. Secretary for Aerospace, Department of Commerce Raymond S. Colladay, Deputy Associate Administrator for, Aeronautics & Space Technology, NASA Robert S. Cooper, Director, Defense Advanced Research, Projects Agency-DoD Thomas D. Cooper, Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Research, Development, and Logistics Eugene E. Covert, Director, Gas Turbine and Plasma Dynamics Laboratory, MIT J. Roger Fleming, Vice President, Operations, Air Transport Association Bastian Hello, President, North American Aircraft Operations, Rockwell International Charles B. Husick, Senior Vice President, Fairchild Industries James N. Krebs, Vice President, Technology and Management Assessment, General Electric Company Walter S. Luffsey, Associate Administrator for, Aviation Standards - FAA Robert R. Lynn, Senior Vice President of Research and Engineering, Bell Helicopter Textron Robert B. Ormsby, President, Lockheed Aeronautical Systems Group John M. Swihart, Vice President, Government Technical Liaison, The Boeing Company, OSTP Maurice A. Roesch, III, Assistant Director, National Security and Space Robert T. Williams, Executive Secretary
Executive Office of the President Office of Science and Technology Policy Washington, D.C. 20500
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