before the
Committee on Science
Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics
United States House of Representatives
November 5, 1997
Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee,
I am pleased to appear before the Subcommittee to discuss the
current status of the International Space Station (ISS) program.
As we approach first element launch, I want the Subcommittee
to know that there is a strong sense of confidence and determination
across the NASA, contractor, and international team concerning
the approaching initiation of assembly of the ISS, the premier
space research platform, on-orbit. I see it in the clear focus
on the details of tasks at hand by the employees at the various
production and integration sites. I hear it in their voices and
see it in the attitude with which problems are attacked and resolved.
These devoted men and women are now seeing their individual efforts
come together with those of others into integrated flight hardware.
Hours of concentration on design drawings, welding, qualification
and test planning, and hundreds of other activities are resulting
in flight elements that have been, or will soon be delivered to
the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) for integration and launch. This
confidence is not limited to the United States; it radiates across
our partnerships. The trust and confidence built between the
joint teams established with Russia through the Shuttle-Mir program
is growing daily and is integral to the success of the ISS. As
on-orbit assembly begins, we will continue to develop similarly
strong operational teams with our other International Partners.
We are now in our fourth year of development
since President Clinton asked NASA to redesign the Space Station
in the spring of 1993. Since then, the ISS program has moved
steadily and aggressively toward overcoming many challenges to
develop this unprecedented international orbital research facility,
the doorway to the future of human space flight.
One of the tools we use to assess our progress
is termed "earned value management." Using that tool,
we can assess our current status as having completed (or "earned")
98% of the scheduled work while spending at 105% of the planned
expenditures. Program funding reserves have been used to offset
this difference. Another tool we use to track the program is
the number of changes to the baseline of hardware and software
system designs. For a development program of this magnitude,
the number of baseline design changes has been about average.
We are currently at the peak period of hardware
and software development activities and are concurrently completing
the development of the pre-operational support infrastructure
of control, training, and processing facilities. The process
of preflight simulation is underway, so that the personnel and
systems responsible for flight and ground operations are fully
trained. On an overall basis, I am proud of the performance of
our people-civil servants and contractors alike. We set extremely
high standards for their performance, so as to push everyone to
peak efficiency and effectiveness. Given the complexity of this
undertaking, meeting those very high expectations is a constant
challenge.
As you know, following a review which we concluded
late this summer, I recommended to the Administrator that additional
funds be made available in FY 1998 for the International Space
Station program. I concluded that, as the program is going through
its peak period of development activity and is preparing for initial
assembly and operations, the budget request was insufficient to
cover both known and unknown challenges. For one, we had initiated
a program to provide assurance against further delays or shortfalls
in the planned contributions of the Russian Space Agency. No
funds were included for that work in the FY 1998 budget request.
Second, there were insufficient reserves available to the program
manager to address unknown development challenges. Third, the
program manager faced the prospect of further shortfalls in the
contractor performance against admittedly tough, but doable, contract
performance standards. My estimate at that time was that an increase
of $430 million was warranted, with somewhat more than half of
that amount to cover the changes in scope and shortfalls in performance
to date, and the remainder to cover future unanticipated problems.
While we are grateful for the partial accommodation
in the FY 1998 VA-HUD-Independent Agencies appropriations bill
(P.L. 105-65) of this requirement, the funding appropriated
for the ISS is still $200 million short of the amount necessary.
We are disappointed that the appropriations bill did not include
the flexibilities sought by NASA to identify the remaining $200
million within the Science, Aeronautics and Technology and Mission
Support appropriations accounts; we believe these adjustments
could have been made without direct impacts on the productivity
of our science and technology program.
NASA stands by our stated requirement of an additional $430 million
to conduct the Program in FY 1998. The Space Station program
is assessing the feasibility of maintaining Program schedules
within the amount provided in P.L. 105-65. Based on this assessment,
NASA, working with the Administration, will make a determination
as to steps necessary to maintain the Program launch schedule
including, if necessary, options to bring additional resources
to the Program. We will outline our proposed approach for the
Committee in the initial FY 1998 operating plan.
Prime Contractor performance problems have indeed contributed
to our current funding situation. However, before discussing
performance issues in greater detail, I would like to first review
the progress made on near-term ISS flights. In addition, I will
highlight the progress of each of our International Partners.
The design and development of ISS elements for the first six flights
is largely complete, and we are well into integration, and qualification
testing. By this time next year, all the elements for these flights
will be delivered to their respective launch sites for integration
and checkout prior to flight. In this same time frame the next
series of flight elements will be completing manufacturing and
outfitting and will begin qualification testing. Maintaining
current ISS program plans will more than double the quarter of
a million pounds of flight hardware already completed and will
result in the completion of over 80 percent of the total development
activity by the close of FY 1998.
The first flight to be launched, the U.S. funded-Russian built
Functional Cargo Block (FGB), is proceeding approximately one
month ahead of schedule toward a June 1998 launch from the Baikonur
Cosmodrome. A full integrated systems test as well as new propulsion
system modifications to provide more robust capability have been
completed. The modified FGB is now in the process of going back
through integrated testing. Shipment to the Baikonur launch facility
is scheduled for January.
For assembly Flight 2A, Node 1 and Pressurized Mating Adapters
1 and 2 (PMA-1 and PMA-2) have been delivered to KSC, where acceptance
testing is underway. We are making progress in preparation for
this flight, but it has not been without challenges. We are working
to recover from late deliveries of Common Berthing Mechanism components
and have started integrated hardware and software testing. The
Node and PMA-1 have completed early stages of electrical power
and communications testing. This is the first time Space Station
flight hardware and software have operated together.
The major flight element for Flight 3A is the Z1 Truss, on which
control moment gyros (CMGs) and the S-Band and Ku-Band communication
and telemetry equipment will be attached. The CMGs have successfully
completed qualification testing. The Z1 flight unit is in assembly
in Tulsa and is progressing toward completion in April 1998.
The Spacelab Pallet Manual Berthing Mechanisms are also in final
assembly. After a month delay, qualification testing started
and is slated to run through next March. Work-arounds have been
identified to keep test completion on schedule. This flight element
will be delivered to KSC in May 1998.
Flight 4A will place the first U.S. photovoltaic array for Station
on orbit. It also launches the Integrated Electronics Assembly
(IEA), which contains many Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs).
An integrated qualification unit containing the IEA, solar arrays,
photovoltaic radiators and ORUs is fully assembled and has successfully
completed electromagnetic interference and acoustic testing in
Denver. The IEA will be delivered to KSC in January 1998. While
there are several ORUs that have had manufacturing problems that
the Prime Contractor is addressing, all other elements are tracking
to their plans. The major components for flight 4A have been
transported to Huntsvilleís Marshall Space Flight Center
for static testing.
Flight 5A, the U.S. Laboratory, is our most significant challenge.
The Lab structure has been outfitted with one endcone and all
four of its standoffs, which contain the elementís electrical
cable trays and fluid lines. Just last Saturday, we achieved
a significant milestone by conducting the first power-up of the
Lab. The Common Module, which is the structural test article
for the Lab, completed modal survey and vibroacoustic tests ahead
of plan. It is in preparation for shipment to Seattle, where
it will undergo static testing later this year. The first avionics
rack is in stand-alone testing. Other internal Lab racks containing
systems equipment and experiments are proceeding in build up,
but are working around late parts deliveries. Risks have been
identified in the area of flight software. The main schedule
concern that we are addressing is the ability of the Lab to support
element-to-element integrated testing at KSC prior to launch.
While schedules remain tight, we believe that recovery plans
will support the integrated test and meet the current launch date
of May 1999.
Relative to Russian progress, a complete integrated review
of Russian development schedules and revisions to these schedules
occurred at the Service Module (SM) (GDR) Designer's Review held
on September 12 in Russia and was attended by senior NASA managers
and technical staff. Significant progress had been made; however,
as with our own schedules, there were areas where work-arounds
were needed to recover schedule slippage. Our assessment at the
GDR was that NASA had no specific reason to doubt Russian commitment
to a SM launch in December 1998. All known problems were understood
and work-around plans indicated that the launch would not be impacted.
Significant work was occurring, funding was flowing, and deliveries
were being made by the Russian contractors. The majority of the
internal secondary structure has been installed. However, the
flight article shipment to RSC-Energia for testing in the integrated
test stand was behind schedule due to thermal control system modifications
resulting from Mir lessons learned, recent electrical cable production
problems, and late delivery of some equipment for installation.
Relative to other SM subsystems, the Electrical Analog (i.e.
flight test unit) assembly was completed and arrived at Energia
on September 1, 1997.
It is also worth noting that Russia has made significant progress
on other elements supporting the ISS such as the Progress M1,
the docking modules, and the Soyuz modifications. Understanding
the schedule risks, the Space Station Control Board (SSCB) held
in late September confirmed the decision to retain the SM in the
December 1998 time-frame. This decision was made by all the International
Partners.
In the months since the SSCB, our observation is that the Russians
have not made significant schedule recovery and, in fact, have
continued to lose schedule due to continued cable production problems.
Although we have assurances from the Russians that they will
meet their December 1998 launch date, schedule erosion is estimated
at two months and we have not seen data that show how the schedule
can be recovered. We will continue to monitor their progress,
and a further assessment will be made in January at the third
GDR in Moscow. Let me state that even if the SM is delayed by
two months, the modifications that have been made to the FGB allow
us the flexibility to maintain our schedule for the launch of
the FGB and the U.S. Node 1.
Last year, and into the spring of this year, the Russian Space
Agency experienced difficulties in meeting their ISS objectives
due to a lack of funding from the Russian government. Since April
1997, adequate funding has been supplied. Most recently, in August,
President Yeltsin signed a decree providing an additional 580
billion rubles
(~ $99.5 million) to the program. Russian contractors have not
raised any recent concerns about adequacy of funding, and it is
expected that remaining funding will be available when required.
We continue to closely monitor funding progress.
Our other International Partners -- Europe, Japan and Canada --
are proceeding with their commitments to the Program, investing
approximately $6 billion to date for design and development of
their contributions. The European Space Agency (ESA) is continuing
development, on schedule, of its key contributions to the ISS
program of the Columbus Orbital Facility (COF), a pressurized
laboratory, and the Automated Transfer Vehicle, a transfer vehicle
which will be used for ISS logistics and propellant resupply and
reboost activities. The Japanese program is also on schedule
with the development of the Japanese Experiment Module (JEM),
which includes a pressurized laboratory, an experimental logistics
module, a robotic arm, an exposed facility for research, and automated
transfer vehicle for logistic resupply of the ISS. Despite continuing
budget constraints in Canada, the Canadian Space Agency has recently
completed the acceptance review of the Space Station Remote Manipulator
System and have committed to the development of the Special Purpose
Dexterous Manipulator.
On a bilateral basis, NASA's cooperation with the Italian Space
Agency (ASI) is proceeding on schedule for their contribution
of the Mini Pressurized Logistics Modules (MPLMs). On October
9, 1997, a revised Memorandum of Understanding was signed between
NASA and ASI to include their contribution of additional MPLM
flight units with enhanced operational capabilities. In addition,
on October 14, 1997, NASA and the Brazilian Space Agency (AEB)
signed an Implementing Arrangement for Brazil's contribution of
Space Station hardware and payload facilities in exchange for
utilization from NASA's allocation.
NASA has also been working with Europe and Japan on arrangements
for the offset of their cost commitments to NASA for launch and
operation of their elements. On October 8, 1997, NASA and ESA
signed an arrangement for the offset of COF launch costs. Under
this arrangement, ESA is committed to provide NASA with ISS Nodes
2 and 3 together with other Space Station hardware. Similarly,
on September 10, 1997, NASA and the National Space Development
Agency of Japan (NASDA) signed an Agreement in Principle for Japan's
provision of the Centrifuge Accommodation Module and associated
hardware in exchange for launch of its elements on the Space Shuttle.
The ISS Partners Europe, Japan, Canada and Russia are planning
to sign a new Intergovernmental Agreement later this year or early
next year to include Russia's participation in the International
Space Station program. In parallel, NASA will also sign Memoranda
of Understanding with each of the respective Cooperating Agencies.
It is obvious that the United States and its
International Partners have made significant progress, now having
passed the 60% completion mark. At the same time, the Committee
is aware that NASA has sought funding for ISS beyond amounts assumed
in the President's FY 1998 budget. We have experienced manufacturing
difficulties including shortages and delayed delivery of critical
parts such as electrical connectors. We have determined through
our development and qualification test programs that modifications
had to be made to our flight hardware to ensure that Program performance
requirements are met. Examples include the addition of struts
to the Node structure to ensure on-orbit pressure integrity and
recovery from performance problems with the Common Berthing Mechanism.
We have also resolved design difficulties with many components
in the Stationís electrical power system. These types
of problems are routinely identified and resolved through planned
development and qualification testing. While we feel that sufficient
up-front design work has been done, these kinds of discoveries
are nearly always made during the test phase of any program, and
changes will not be limited to those encountered to date. As
you know, this is a major reason to maintain Program reserves.
Other issues encountered as the Program has
moved from design and development to integration and testing
of flight hardware and software include definitization
of requirements for sustaining engineering and Program spares.
Sustaining engineering pays for the cost of maintaining a minimum
workforce level to handle modifications and issues after the hardware
has been delivered to the Government. The ISS Program chose to
negotiate these costs separately from the base contract to allow
for better definition of the systems and hardware/software prior
to negotiating cost. Like sustaining engineering, sparing requirements
were not included in the original Prime contract in order to allow
systems designs and flight planning to mature. The annual cost
cap and flat funding profile of the ISS budget have made it difficult
for us to apply adequate Program reserves toward these areas at
a level proportional to the amount of work being performed during
the peak development phase of the ISS. Despite this severe restriction,
we have been successful to date in finding ways to maintain most
development schedules. Additionally, Program decisions have been
made to obtain significant components of the Program through offsets
negotiated with our International Partners, which include the
recent decision to use a third Node element (Node 3), built by
the European Space Agency, as the habitation module until late
in the assembly sequence when the U.S. Habitation module will
be launched. In several cases the hardware being provided through
these offsets has allowed cost avoidance through the minimization
of U.S. effort associated with these elements.
The Committee has been briefed on the latest cost estimate made
by Boeing, the ISS Prime Contractor. I would like to clarify
the effect of the Prime overrun, particularly the effect on FY
1998. In July, Boeing issued a revised
cost Estimate at Completion (EAC) reflecting a $600 million Variance
at Completion (VAC) from their current contract. This estimate
includes $389 million of overrun against work completed through
September 1997, leaving an estimated ìoverrun to goî
of $211 million, of which they believe $111 million will be needed
in FY 98. NASA has also evaluated the work remaining to be performed
and feels that the contract could overrun by $800 million (rather
than $600 million), of which $207 million will be required in
FY 1998. It should be noted that $77 million of the NASA estimate
for FY 1998 was already included in the President's FY
1998 budget, with an additional $130 million being requested by
NASA for Prime Contractor cost growth. I feel that it is prudent
to plan for the more conservative estimate.
With that background on the Prime Contractor performance, the
next item to understand is NASA's FY 1998 forecast, where NASA
has stated that an additional $430 million is required beyond
the Presidentís FY 1998 budget submit. The $430 million
is comprised of the additional $130 million estimated for the
Boeing overrun discussed above, as well as other adjustments where
we have better cost definition for sustaining engineering (+$13.4
M), spares (+$29 M), and make operable changes (+$166 M). It
also includes an additional $162 million for Russian-driven changes,
of which $100 million has been allocated for step one of the Russian
Program Assurance. Lower level adjustments in non-Prime activities
such as Government furnished equipment, research programs, and
extravehicular activity preparation resulted in a decrease in
funding requirements of $34 million from the Presidentís
FY 1998 budget. Finally, assuming that the areas of concern listed
above were augmented as specified, FY 1998 reserves could have
been reduced by $36 million. This leaves the Program with approximately
$200 million in reserves, including the anticipated $50 million
in uncosted carryover from FY 1997, to cover the unforeseeable
problems which will occur in FY 1998.
Make no mistake, there are still development issues remaining
- particularly in the areas of command and data handling; software;
qualification test activities for thermal control and outboard
truss segments, photovoltaic electronics system and other electrical
orbital replaceable units; and in the area of Lab software and
Lab hardware assembly and test. However, even at current trends,
future cost growth will be substantially less than it would be
if work must be deferred due to budget limitations.
Several "cutback" options are under consideration by
the Program if the additional $200 million in FY 1998 funding
is not secured. None of these options are without significant
pain and risk to the Program. However, the inadequate level of
reserves for FY 1998 requires some action to be taken. Options
under consideration include (1) deferring
work in the baseline program, thereby delaying the Phase III schedule,
(2) delaying the planned research activities during assembly,
or (3) terminating our Russian contingency activity, including
the ICM, which would increase the risk of incurring significant
cost if there are further Russian launch delays. The ICM is intended
not only to protect against further delays of the Service Module,
but also to provide risk reduction from delays in Progress propellant
resupply to the ISS.
As the Associate Administrator for Space Flight, I believe the
above options would place the program at risk to (1) deal with
the technical development challenges of this highly complex international
endeavor; (2) continue to mitigate the risks of Russian government
problems; and, (3) maintain an adequate level of research activity
as early as possible. I am convinced that maintaining the baseline
technical and schedule plan for Space Station in FY 1998 is the
key to controlling total costs. I am working with the NASA Administrator
and the Administration to address these issues
In conclusion, I believe the FY 1998
VA-HUD-Independent Agencies appropriations bill, as enacted, does
not provide the necessary level of funding to maintain the International
Space Station baseline technical and schedule plan. I am convinced
that the total FY 1998 funding requirement as outlined by NASA
represents a prudent path to bring this Program to its operational
phase at minimum cost to the U.S. taxpayer.
At a hearing before the Senate Subcommittee
on Science, Technology, and Space earlier this year, the Chairman
of the Commerce committee, Senator John McCain brought up the
issue of developing a realistic program cap on Space Station.
NASA is working with the GAO so that our cost estimates are understood
and has impaneled a group of experts independent from NASA to
look at the issue of total program cost. Mr. Jay Chabrow, an
expert from the private sector with over 30 years experience in
contracts, pricing, cost estimating, analysis and procurement
for aerospace projects has formed an external review team and
that team is in the process of collecting data from the various
Program elements. Mr. Chabrow currently serves as a member on
the Advisory Committee on the International Space Station. This
team consists of experts from outside of NASA capable of performing
a detailed cost analysis. I anticipate this team to first conduct
its assessment independent of the GAO, but remain in existence
for a period thereafter to work together with the GAO to address
its analyses and any additional concerns the GAO might have.
We are less than nine months from launch and
know of no major technical impediments in our path. As U.S. flight
elements continue to be delivered to their KSC launch site, development
staffing levels will continue to drop. We are not on the homeward
slide, but the mountain is no longer before us. There will be
many challenges to overcome, but we will forge ahead as surely
as we have come this far.
NASA, the U.S. aerospace industry, and our
foreign partners have formed teams comprised of exceptional individuals
who are working closely together to build a space station which
will have a profound impact on the whole world. We have worked
through a daunting set of problems and have made outstanding progress
in this complex and challenging endeavor, and I am confident that
with this dedicated International Space Station team and with
the support of the Administration and the Congress we will deliver
as promised.
Wilbur C. Trafton was named Associate Administrator
for the Office of Space Flight on March 28, 1996, placing him
in charge of NASA's Human Exploration and Development of
Space Enterprise. As Associate Administrator for Space Flight,
Trafton is responsible for establishing the policies and direction
of NASA's human space flight programs. Before his appointment
as Associate Administrator for Space Flight, Trafton served as
the director for the Space Station program. In this position
he was responsible for overall planning, budgeting and management
of the International Space Station to be built by the United States,
Russia, the European Space Agency, Japan and Canada.
Prior to joining NASA, Trafton worked in
both the public and private sectors. From 1992-1993 he served
as Chief Operating Officer and President of Micro Research Industries,
a state-of-the-art computer systems integration and software company.
During a 26 year Navy career, Captain Trafton
held command and high level staff positions in areas of operations,
acquisition, and international affairs. A Naval Aviator, he is
a decorated combat veteran. He served as Executive Officer aboard
the aircraft carrier U.S.S. Forrestal and as Commanding Officer
of the U.S.S. Seattle. He was the Executive Assistant to the
Commander, Naval Air Systems Command involved in the acquisition
of major aviation systems. At the Pentagon, he served as Team
Chief for Contingency Planning and Crisis Action for the Joint
Chiefs of Staff. In that capacity, he conducted Congressional
and Executive Branch liaison duties for the Chairman, Joint Chiefs
of Staff on international issues. As Assistant Chief of Staff
for Plans and Policy for the Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet, he
coordinated international and military and diplomatic negotiations
with Pacific Rim nations, including Russia. Captain Trafton led
the team that planned and managed the withdrawal of U.S. naval
forces from the Philippines.
Trafton is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy,
Class of 1966. He received a masterís degree in Operations
Research and Systems Analysis from the U.S. Naval Postgraduate
School, Monterey, CA. He is also a graduate of Defense Systems
Management College, Ft. Belvoir, VA.
Trafton is married to Mary Grace Schwab.
They reside in Alexandria, VA.