Commercial Space Transportation Study
2.0 Study Methodology and Approach
The CSTS approach differed from traditional studies and is summarized in figure 2.0-1. First, six normally competitive aerospace companies worked together to accomplish the objectives of the study. Second, this study researched potential customer needs rather than starting with a preconceived solution of a transportation system and then trying to identify customers for it.
The CSTS market assessment followed two paths. Key decision makers within a broad range of industries who might have future business activities in space were contacted. These contacts spanned the spectrum of industry, including advertising, electronics, energy, entertainment, health care, manufacturing, telecommunications, tourism, and academia.
In parallel, a business analysis effort assessed the various opportunities using analytical business models to validate the data from the market surveys and to test assumptions about the new markets. Interview findings identified additional characteristics of the markets, new commercial space markets, key decision factors from an "insider's" perspective, and space transportation system attributes necessary to meet commercial user needs. Market area revenues and capture opportunities were then quantified. CSTS tasks, identified in figure 2.0-2, were augmented by additional efforts performed by the Alliance under discretionary resources (shaded boxes).
For each market area a range of demand was identified for high, medium, and low probability projections. High probability projections represented the lowest market risk and produced the lowest estimate of future transportation demand. Its business ventures included those that fall within current business operating conditions and meet market area financial projections. In contrast, the low probability demand projection allowed optimistic extrapolations and expansions of current business activities into space, with business activities still within current market area financial projections and acceptable market area rates of return. The medium probability demand model was a nominal extrapolation between the low and high probability markets.
| CSTS Approach | Classical Approach |
| Focus on market thresholds and market elasticity | Focus on vehicle concepts |
| Create the market addressing both traditional and nontraditional customers | Survey the market |
| Create opportunities | Identify needs |
| Contractors working together | Contractors compete |
| Government supported technology; commercially supported development and operation | Government funded and operated |
| Economic growth from government and commercial investment, and financial returns | Economic growth from government investment |
| Focus on economic return | Vehicle performance driven |
Figure 2.0-1. Why the CSTS Approach Is Different
Figure 2.0-2. CSTS Approach and Methodology
